Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Monashees Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (7 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.8%–73.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+4.4 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 45.6%
Vs median VC book
-7.3 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 57.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-23.5 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 73.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.9 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 65.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.2 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Popegopopego.com | 2009 | No | 93 | — |
| Baby.com.brbaby.com.br | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Algentisalgentis.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| Mind Lab Groupmindlab-group.com | 2009 | No | 68 | — |
| Keepconkeepcon.com | 2010 | No | 60 | — |
| Peixe Urbanopeixeurbano.com.br | 2011 | Yes | 58 | — |
| olookolook.com.br | 2011 | Yes | 44 | — |
| MadeiraMadeiramadeiramadeira.com.br | 2012 | Yes | 40 | — |
| boo-boxboo-box.com | 2007 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Mind Labmindlab.com.br | 2009 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Policardpolicard.com.br | 2007 | No | 26 | — |
| PetLovepetlove.com.br | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| Ikwa Orientação Profissionalikwa.com.br | 2006 | No | 7 | — |
| First Opinionfirstopinionapp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |