Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Morado Venture Partners vs Kairos
49th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (10 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 41.7%–84.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 65th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.0 pp
66.7% on 15 deals vs 46.7%
Vs median VC book
+7.6 pp
66.7% on 15 deals vs 59.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.7 pp
66.7% on 15 deals vs 74.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.0 pp
66.7% on 15 deals vs 77.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 90.9% (10 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 62.3%–98.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+79.5 pp
90.9% on 11 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apsalarapsalar.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Clovercloverapp.co | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Wellowello.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| ThisLifethislife.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Impermiumimpermium.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| DataTorrentdatatorrent.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| OnSwipeonswipe.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Gobblegobble.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Jetpacjetpac.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| HipGeohipgeo.com | 2011 | No | 78 | — |
| Pepperdatapepperdata.com | 2012 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Local Motiongetlocalmotion.com | 2012 | Yes | 56 | — |
| COLOURloverscolourlovers.com | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| CardSpringcardspring.com | 2011 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Tomfoolerytomfoolery.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Opsmaticopsmatic.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |