Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Morgan Stanley Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.2 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 44.8%
Vs median VC book
-26.8 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 55.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-39.2 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 67.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-47.9 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 76.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
45
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 42.9% (3 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 15.8%–75.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+27.8 pp
42.9% on 7 deals vs 15.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solstice Neurosciencessolsticeneuro.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Novaluxnovalux.it | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Hyperformixhyperformix.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Ingenuity Systemsingenuity.com | 2010 | No | 52 | — |
| iRiseirise.com | 2005 | No | 29 | — |
| Business Engine | 2005 | No | 14 | — |
| Visiprisevisiprise.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |