Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Morgenthaler Ventures vs Kairos
88th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 69.6% (32 of 46 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 55.2%–80.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 79th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.1 pp
69.6% on 46 deals vs 41.5%
Vs median VC book
+19.0 pp
70.5% on 44 deals vs 51.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.9 pp
70.5% on 44 deals vs 66.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+6.3 pp
70.3% on 37 deals vs 64.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 44 of 46 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
44
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
43/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.6% (8 of 43). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–32.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.2 pp
18.6% on 43 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
46 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danal, Inc.danalinc.com | 2007 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Sirisiri.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| sezmisezmi.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Tragaratragarapharma.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Pickwick & Wellerpickwickweller.com | 2012 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Voltage Securityvoltage.com | 2003 | Yes | 94 | Yes |
| Sonatypesonatype.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Stemgentstemgent.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Arisdyne Systemsarisdyne.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Big Switch Networksbigswitch.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Miramar Labsmiradry.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Socratasocrata.com | 2008 | No | 87 | — |
| Promediorpromedior.com | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| CLK Design Automationclkda.com | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| OneChip Photonicsonechipphotonics.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Netli | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| Rhythm NewMediarhythmnewmedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Catalyst Biosciencescatalystbiosciences.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| MuleSoftmulesoft.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Transcend Medicaltranscendmedical.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| imeemimeem.com | 2004 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Xoomsysxoomsys.com | 2007 | No | 72 | — |
| ZeroG Wirelesszerogwireless.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| IGA Worldwideigaworldwide.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Utterzutterz.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| Trellis Biosciencetrellisbio.com | 2007 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Orb Networksorb.com | 2004 | No | 61 | — |
| Foldrx Pharmaceuticalsfoldrx.com | 2010 | No | 60 | — |
| Innovative Pulmonary Solutionsinnovativepulmonary.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Intelleflexintelleflex.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Jaspersoftjaspersoft.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Five Star Technologiesfivestartech.com | 2003 | No | 57 | — |
| HealthLoophealthloop.com | 2013 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Paratekparatek.com | 2004 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Unity Semiconductorunitysemi.com | 2009 | No | 34 | — |
| StarGen | 2003 | Yes | 33 | — |
| OncoMed Pharmaceuticalsoncomed.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Digital Railroaddigitalrailroad.net | 2005 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Cortina Systemscortina-systems.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| NanoOptonanoopto.com | 2003 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Satietysatiety.com | 2007 | Yes | 20 | — |
| ExploraMedexploramed.com | 2008 | No | 13 | — |
| Zolo Technologieszolotech.com | 2005 | Yes | 11 | — |
| OptiScan Biomedicaloptiscancorp.com | 2005 | No | 8 | — |
| Overture Networksoverturenetworks.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Agility Communicationsjdsu.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |