Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Motorola Solutions Venture Capital vs Kairos
28th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (10 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.9%–70.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 41st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.1 pp
50.0% on 20 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
-1.9 pp
50.0% on 20 deals vs 51.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.2 pp
50.0% on 20 deals vs 66.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.5 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 67.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 26.3% (5 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 11.8%–48.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.8 pp
26.3% on 19 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tango Networkstango-networks.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| BDNAbdna.com | 2005 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Zephyr Technologyzephyr-technology.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| DesignArt Networksdesignartnetworks.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Lumidigmlumidigm.com | 2005 | No | 76 | — |
| OpenCloudopencloud.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Keynotedeviceanywhere.com | 2006 | No | 69 | — |
| Apertioapertio.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| GreenPeak Technologiesgreenpeak.com | 2006 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Dilithium Networksonmobile.com | 2003 | Yes | 62 | — |
| MicroPower Technologiesmicropower.com | 2012 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Intelleflexintelleflex.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Spotwave Wirelessspotwave.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| Navini Networks | 2005 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Anam Mobileanam.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| KXENkxen.com | 2004 | No | 43 | — |
| Lumuslumus-optical.com | 2005 | No | 42 | — |
| Sensitive Objectsensitiveobject.fr | 2009 | No | 37 | — |
| Avvenuavvenu.com | 2006 | No | 37 | — |
| Digital Safety Technologiesdigitalsafetytech.com | 2005 | No | 9 | — |