Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
MPM Capital vs Kairos
76th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.8% (17 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 50.8%–85.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 79th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.0 pp
70.8% on 24 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
+18.3 pp
70.8% on 24 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.9 pp
70.8% on 24 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+9.6 pp
75.0% on 20 deals vs 65.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (7 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 17.2%–54.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.5 pp
33.3% on 21 deals vs 12.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allozyneallozyne.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Rhythm Pharmaceuticalsrhythmtx.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Aratana Therapeuticsaratanatherapeutics.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Vascular Pharmaceuticalsvascularpharma.com | 2012 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Epizymeepizyme.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| EndoGastric Solutionsendogastricsolutions.com | 2003 | Yes | 90 | — |
| iPierianipierian.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Syndax Pharmaceuticalssyndax.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Nevronevro.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Verastemverastem.com | 2010 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Theraclone Sciencestheraclone-sciences.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Oxagenoxagen.co.uk | 2009 | No | 66 | — |
| Taigentaigenbiotech.com.tw | 2004 | No | 65 | — |
| Innovative Spinal Technologiesistspine.com | 2008 | No | 64 | — |
| Radius Healthradiuspharm.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| PharmAthenepharmathene.com | 2009 | No | 58 | — |
| VLST Corporationvlstcorp.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Cellerant Therapeuticscellerant.com | 2005 | Yes | 55 | — |
| PrimeraDx (Primera Biosystems)primeradx.com | 2008 | Yes | 45 | — |
| ARYx Therapeuticsaryx.com | 2004 | No | 39 | — |
| TriVasculartrivascular.com | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Elixir Pharmaceuticalselixirpharm.com | 2006 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Ceregeneceregene.com | 2004 | Yes | 11 | — |
| MacroGenicsmacrogenics.com | 2006 | No | 7 | — |