Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Nauta Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.9% (6 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.4%–67.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-1.8 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 44.7%
Vs median VC book
-12.6 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 55.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-28.5 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 71.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-27.8 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 70.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.2 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GreatCallgreatcall.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| AirSense Wirelessairsensewireless.com | 2011 | No | 84 | — |
| yuilopyuilop.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| GetAppgetapp.com | 2011 | No | 72 | — |
| mysportgroupmysportworld.de | 2012 | No | 67 | — |
| CloudWorkcloudwork.com | 2011 | No | 57 | — |
| Groupaliagroupalia.com | 2010 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Social Pointsocialpoint.es | 2011 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Bettymovilbettymovil.com | 2008 | No | 50 | — |
| Catalytic Softwarecatalytic.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| SouthWingsouthwing.com | 2006 | No | 36 | — |
| International Sportsbook | 2009 | No | 29 | — |
| MobileAwaremobileaware.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Scytlscytl.com | 2010 | No | 14 | — |