Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Naxicap Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-25.1 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
-34.3 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 54.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-49.5 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 69.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-48.1 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 68.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
29
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.5 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagge | 2005 | No | 55 | — |
| ATEMEateme.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| Opendiscopendisc.net | 2006 | No | 38 | — |
| ADENTS HTIadents.com | 2011 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Exakisexakis.com | 2009 | No | 26 | — |
| Cylandecylande.com | 2008 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Central Testcentraltest.com | 2009 | No | 21 | — |
| Asteelasteel.fr | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| Mondecamondeca.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| EUDOWEBeudoweb.com | 2011 | No | 13 | — |