Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

NBGI Ventures vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.7%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

-13.3 pp

33.3% on 6 deals vs 46.7%

Vs median VC book

-26.3 pp

33.3% on 6 deals vs 59.6%

Vs top-quartile VC

-42.6 pp

33.3% on 6 deals vs 75.9%

Vs Y Combinator

-32.5 pp

33.3% on 6 deals vs 65.8%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
SuperSonic Imaginesupersonicimagine.fr	2006	Yes	84	—
Quanta Fluid Solutionsquantafs.com	2009	No	72	—
Advanced Cardiac Therapeuticsactmed.net	2010	No	66	—
CellNovocellnovo.com	2011	No	35	—
Upfront Chromatographyupfront-dk.com	2007	No	24	—
DySISmedicaldysismedical.com	2013	Yes	—	—