Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IndoUS Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (6 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.3%–83.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.9 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
+4.4 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 55.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.4 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 71.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.1 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 64.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–39.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.9 pp
0.0% on 6 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Convivaconviva.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Magztermagzter.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Zivame.comaskforoffer.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Minekeyminekey.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Snapdealsnapdeal.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Pressmartpressmart.com | 2008 | No | 41 | — |
| Connectiva Systemsconnectivasystems.com | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Bay Talkitec (P)baytalkitec.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Gingersoft Mediamginger.com | 2007 | No | 13 | — |
| Appsdaily Solutionsappsdailyworld.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |