Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Neu Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.8% (9 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.3%–94.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+36.5 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
+25.2 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 56.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+9.9 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 71.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+13.2 pp
81.8% on 11 deals vs 68.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
89
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+33.3 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 11.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trade Deskthetradedesk.com | 2010 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Dataherodatahero.com | 2012 | Yes | 99 | — |
| awe.smawe.sm | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Simplesimple.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Magneticmagnetictax.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Pinch Mediapinchmedia.com | 2008 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Metamarketsmetamarkets.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Yieldbotyieldbot.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Percolatepercolate.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Lucky Sortluckysort.com | 2012 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Optimal, Inc.bn.co | 2008 | No | 63 | — |