Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Neuhaus Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.2 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 43.8%
Vs median VC book
-5.5 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 55.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.2 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.8 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 61.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.0 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cellitycellity.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| playnikplaynik.de | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| appruptapprupt.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Fishlabsfishlabs.net | 2007 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Exit Gamesphotonengine.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| Content Fleetcontentfleet.com | 2010 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Searchmetricssearchmetrics.com | 2010 | Yes | 48 | — |
| sofatronicsofatronic.com | 2009 | No | 17 | — |
| smava.de | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |
| 1000jobboersen.de1000jobboersen.de | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |