Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
New Leaf Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.5% (8 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.5%–82.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+19.7 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 41.8%
Vs median VC book
+9.3 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 52.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-6.4 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 68.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.2 pp
61.5% on 13 deals vs 59.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (2 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 5.1%–47.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.6 pp
18.2% on 11 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tioga Pharmaceuticalstiogapharma.com | 2006 | No | 96 | — |
| Spiracurspiracur.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| ReShape Medicalreshapemedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Interlace Medicalinterlacemedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Artisan Pharmaartisanpharma.net | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Relypsarelypsa.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Pearl Therapeuticspearltherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Direct Flow Medicaldirectflowmedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Karus Therapeuticskarustherapeutics.com | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| BioRelixbiorelix.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Convergence Pharmaceuticalsconvergencepharma.com | 2010 | No | 49 | — |
| Oriel Therapeuticsorieltherapeutics.com | 2007 | No | 17 | — |
| Transcept Pharmaceuticalstransoral.com | 2007 | No | 9 | — |
| Treatotreato.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |