Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
New Venture Partners vs Kairos
19th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.9% (9 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 24.5%–63.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 31st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-0.3 pp
42.9% on 21 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
-13.9 pp
40.0% on 20 deals vs 53.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-29.3 pp
40.0% on 20 deals vs 69.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-29.6 pp
36.8% on 19 deals vs 66.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 20 of 21 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 21.4% (3 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 7.6%–47.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.4 pp
21.4% on 14 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLINQ Networksblinqnetworks.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Texerttexertinc.com | 2008 | No | 85 | — |
| Vasona Networksvasonanetworks.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Liquavistaliquavista.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| TimeSight Systemstimesightsystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Novindanovinda.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Azure Solutionsazuresolutions.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| ICRTecicrtec.com | 2012 | No | 70 | — |
| Real Time Contentrealtimecontent.com | 2007 | No | 69 | — |
| GainSpangainspan.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Elanti Systemselantisystems.com | 2008 | No | 63 | — |
| Imperative Healthimperativehealth.com | 2010 | No | 54 | — |
| Silicon Hivesiliconhive.com | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Alverixalverix.com | 2008 | No | 50 | — |
| SavaJe Technologies | 2003 | Yes | 37 | — |
| AetherPalaetherpal.com | 2013 | No | 36 | — |
| Brisbane Materials Technologybrismat.com | 2012 | No | 35 | — |
| Own Productsownbeauty.com | 2012 | No | 32 | — |
| EverSpin Technologieseverspin.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Telepartnertelepartner.co.uk | 2007 | No | 21 | — |
| InPhase Technologiesinphase-technologies.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |