Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Partnership Fund for New York City vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (6 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 61.0%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+57.1 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+47.0 pp
100.0% on 5 deals vs 53.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+30.0 pp
100.0% on 5 deals vs 70.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+34.9 pp
100.0% on 5 deals vs 65.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 5 of 6 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zipmarkzipmark.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Scratch Music Groupscratch.com | 2011 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Schoolnetschoolnet.com | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| OwnEnergyownenergy.net | 2008 | Yes | 52 | — |
| CPowercpowered.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |
| The FeedRoomfeedroom.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |