Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Newbury Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.8 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 41.6%
Vs median VC book
-14.2 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 51.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-26.3 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 63.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-29.3 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 79.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.8 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 15.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NewStep Networks | 2003 | No | 98 | Yes |
| MetaLINCSmetalincs.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| BDNAbdna.com | 2005 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Onaroonaro.com | 2004 | No | 84 | — |
| Spotwave Wirelessspotwave.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| Echovoxechovox.com | 2005 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Zongzong.com | 2005 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Meriton Networksmeriton.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |
| Silverback Systems | 2001 | Yes | — | — |