Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
NewSpring Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 77.8% (7 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.3%–93.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+34.2 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+23.4 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+7.5 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 70.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+10.0 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 67.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
56
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.4 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 12.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Message Systemsmessagesystems.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Relay Networkrelaynetwork.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| iPipelineipipeline.com | 2008 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Nitric Bionitricbio.com | 2006 | No | 65 | — |
| WuXi AppTecwuxiapptec.com.cn | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Core Essence Orthopaedicsceortho.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Smart Destinationssmartdestinations.com | 2008 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Quintiqquintiq.com | 2011 | No | 28 | — |
| Precyseprecyse.com | 2010 | Yes | 10 | — |