Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
NextView Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (8 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–86.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+18.6 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 48.1%
Vs median VC book
+5.0 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 61.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.4 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 77.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-8.1 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 74.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
82
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+60.6 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 10.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsightSquaredinsightsquared.com | 2011 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Shareaholicshareaholic.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| One Jacksononejackson.com | 2012 | No | 93 | — |
| Boundlessboundless.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Directrdirectr.co | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Clozecloze.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| Mojo Motorsmojomotors.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| SkyVu Entertainmentsky.vu | 2012 | No | 80 | — |
| Crunchedusecrunched.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| TurningArtturningart.com | 2011 | Yes | 64 | — |
| YesGraphyesgraph.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| TapCommercetapcommerce.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |