Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Nexus Venture Partners vs Kairos
51st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.9% (14 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.8%–77.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 60th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.6 pp
60.9% on 23 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
+4.9 pp
60.9% on 23 deals vs 56.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.9 pp
60.9% on 23 deals vs 71.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-7.1 pp
60.9% on 23 deals vs 68.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
22
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (5 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–58.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.3 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimdimdimdim.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| PubMaticpubmatic.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Assured Laborassuredlabor.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Cloud.comcloud.com | 2010 | No | 97 | — |
| d.light designdlight.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Unmetricunmetric.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Helpshifthelpshift.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Vdopiavdopia.com | 2008 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Datagres Technologiesdatagres.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| Medico.commedico.com | 2011 | No | 73 | — |
| Yebhiyebhi.com | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Snapdealsnapdeal.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| ScaleArcscalearc.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| TalentSprint Educational Servicestalentsprint.com | 2012 | No | 67 | — |
| Mobile2Win Indiamobile2win.com | 2006 | No | 64 | — |
| Craftsvillacraftsvilla.com | 2011 | Yes | 60 | — |
| CE Info Systemsmappls.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Netmagic Solutionsnetmagicsolutions.com | 2008 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Glustergluster.org | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| Mistral Solutionsmistralsolutions.com | 2008 | No | 28 | — |
| SEDEMAC Mechatronicssedemac.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| MagicRooms Solutions India (P)Ltd.magicrooms.in | 2010 | No | 6 | — |
| Housing.comhousing.co.in | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Armor5armor5.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| H2O.aih2o.ai | 2013 | Yes | — | — |