Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
NGEN Partners vs Kairos
22nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.7% (7 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 24.8%–69.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 35th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.0 pp
46.7% on 15 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
-8.7 pp
46.7% on 15 deals vs 55.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-24.1 pp
46.7% on 15 deals vs 70.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.7 pp
46.7% on 15 deals vs 61.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 42.9% (6 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 21.4%–67.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+30.5 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flipswapflipswap.com | 2008 | No | 97 | — |
| Tioga Energytiogaenergy.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| HYLA Mobilehylamobile.com | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| eIQ Energyeiqenergy.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| BrightFarmsbrightfarms.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Solariasolaria.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Textronicstextronicsinc.com | 2005 | No | 79 | — |
| Greengate Powergreengatepower.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Carbonetworkscarbonetworks.com | 2008 | No | 65 | — |
| Energy and Power Solutionseps-trading.com | 2007 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Hycretehycrete.com | 2008 | No | 33 | — |
| EPSenergynpower.com | 2007 | No | 20 | — |
| Sensicoresensicore.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| Powerspanpowerspan.com | 2008 | No | 8 | — |
| Pure Energies Grouppure-energies.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Bare Snacksbaresnacks.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |