Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
NGN Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 85.7% (6 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.7%–97.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+42.8 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+32.0 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+16.8 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 68.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+20.4 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 65.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.9 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artisan Pharmaartisanpharma.net | 2006 | Yes | 85 | — |
| ACT Biotechactbiotech.com | 2008 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Exosome Diagnosticsexosomedx.com | 2010 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Valtech Cardiovaltechcardio.com | 2010 | No | 60 | — |
| EKOS Corporationekoscorp.com | 2005 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Aerovanceaerovance.com | 2007 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Small Bone Innovationstotalsmallbone.com | 2008 | Yes | 27 | — |