Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Nordic Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-32.2 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 43.3%
Vs median VC book
-41.3 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-55.6 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-56.2 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 67.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (1 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–43.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-3.1 pp
11.1% on 9 deals vs 14.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuentcontinuent.com | 2005 | No | 97 | Yes |
| Nanoradionanoradio.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Giritechgiritech.com | 2005 | No | 76 | — |
| Jalbumjalbum.net | 2008 | No | 46 | — |
| Polar Rosepolarrose.com | 2006 | No | 29 | — |
| Meridea Financial Software | 2006 | No | 27 | — |
| Operaxoperax.com | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| NYX Interactivenyxinteractive.com | 2008 | No | 20 | — |
| Sanakosanako.com | 2008 | No | 17 | — |