Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Noro-Moseley Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.9 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 43.2%
Vs median VC book
-2.8 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.0 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 68.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-16.0 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 66.0%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 13 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–24.3%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.0 pp
0.0% on 12 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clearleapclearleap.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Damballadamballa.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Privarisprivaris.com | 2005 | No | 89 | — |
| Appiaappia.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| 2080 Media | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Front Stream Paymentsfrontstreampayments.com | 2008 | No | 78 | — |
| Netuitivenetuitive.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| LibreDigitallibredigital.com | 2006 | No | 70 | — |
| Acumen Holdingsacumenholdings.com | 2010 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Pathfirepathfire.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| EGT | 2006 | No | 34 | — |
| LearnSomethinglearnsomething.com | 2006 | No | 9 | — |
| Hospicelinkhospicelink.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| SecureWorkssecureworks.com | 2000 | No | — | — |