Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
North Bridge Venture Partners & Growth Equity vs Kairos
95th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.1% (44 of 61 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.8%–81.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 82nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.3 pp
72.1% on 61 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+20.6 pp
73.3% on 60 deals vs 52.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.8 pp
73.3% on 60 deals vs 67.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.3 pp
74.1% on 54 deals vs 65.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 60 of 61 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
60
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.6% (11 of 56). 95% Wilson interval 11.3%–31.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.1 pp
19.6% on 56 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
61 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobicious/SnapMyLifemobicious.com | 2007 | No | 100 | Yes |
| SynapDxsynapdx.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Currenseecurrensee.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| 24M Technologies24-m.com | 2010 | No | 98 | — |
| Viximoviximo.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Intelliworksintelliworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Mozesmozes.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| MC10mc10inc.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| rPathrpath.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Tapjoytapjoy.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Akorri Networksakorri.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Demandwaredemandware.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Movik Networksmovik.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Bungee Labsbungeelabs.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Profitablyprofitably.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| BlueNote Networks | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| QD Visioncoloriq.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Viridity Softwareviriditysoftware.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Wis.dmwis.dm | 2007 | No | 89 | — |
| 480 Biomedical480biomedical.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Black Sand Technologiesblacksand.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Springleaf Therapeuticsspringleaftx.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Zilker Labszilkerlabs.com | 2005 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Ravel Lawravellaw.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Newformanewforma.com | 2005 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Entra Pharmaceuticalsentrapharma.com | 2008 | No | 83 | — |
| Revolution Analyticsrevolutionanalytics.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| 1366 Technologies1366tech.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Humedicahumedica.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Camiantcamiant.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Azimuth Systemsazimuthsystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Embraneembrane.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Infineta Systemsinfineta.com | 2010 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Mavenir Systemsmavenir.com | 2006 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Dyndyn.com | 2012 | No | 72 | — |
| Acquiaacquia.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Nasuninasuni.com | 2009 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Bluespecbluespec.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| AwarenessHubawarenesshub.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Soflow | 2006 | No | 61 | — |
| Tradual Inc. | 2008 | No | 56 | — |
| Tatara Systemstatarasystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Lumigent Technologieslumigent.com | 2003 | No | 52 | — |
| Salsifysalsify.com | 2013 | Yes | 52 | — |
| TimeLab | 2005 | No | 48 | — |
| Zingdom Communications | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Xsigoxsigo.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |
| BlueShift Technologiesblueshifttech.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Reva Systemsrevasystems.com | 2006 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Archivasarchivas.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| SDL Enterprise Technologiesidiominc.com | 2005 | No | 33 | — |
| Crossbeam Systemscrossbeamsystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Udex | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Signiantsigniant.com | 2006 | No | 26 | — |
| Xtalicxtalic.com | 2008 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Active Endpointsactiveendpoints.com | 2004 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Cogniocognio.com | 2003 | No | 19 | — |
| Virtual Goods Market | 2009 | No | 16 | — |
| Mformation Technologiesmformation.com | 2004 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Reval.comreval.com | 2007 | Yes | 16 | — |
| kSARIAksaria.com | 2001 | No | — | — |