Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
The North West Fund vs Kairos
0th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 16.2% (6 of 37 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 7.7%–31.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 5th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-30.8 pp
16.2% on 37 deals vs 47.0%
Vs median VC book
-42.3 pp
16.2% on 37 deals vs 58.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-56.4 pp
16.2% on 37 deals vs 72.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-63.1 pp
16.2% on 37 deals vs 79.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
35
Mean model percentile
27
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
37 labeled follow-on deals, 6 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BiOxyDynbioxydyn.com | 2012 | No | 71 | — |
| CellCap Technologiescell-capture.com | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| Tyres on the Drivetyresonthedrive.com | 2012 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Kanichi Research Serviceskanichi-research.com | 2012 | No | 44 | — |
| App55 Ltdapp55.com | 2012 | No | 44 | — |
| Setgosetgogames.com | 2012 | No | 38 | — |
| PlaceFirstplacefirst.co.uk | 2012 | No | 33 | — |
| TTS Pharmattspharma.com | 2012 | No | 33 | — |
| TopCat Researchtopcat-research.com | 2011 | No | 32 | — |
| Zilicozilico.co.uk | 2012 | No | 32 | — |
| Ambitious Mindsambitiousminds.co.uk | 2011 | No | 32 | — |
| Alchemy Pharmatechalchemypharmatech.com | 2012 | No | 31 | — |
| Dot Medicaldot-medical.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |
| Camiloocamiloo.co.uk | 2011 | No | 27 | — |
| Imperative Energyimperativeenergy.ie | 2012 | No | 26 | — |
| HammerKithammerkit.com | 2012 | No | 25 | — |
| InterRisk Solutionsinterrisksolutions.com | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| Alchemy Pharmatech Ltd.alchemypharmatech.com | 2011 | No | 23 | — |
| Connect Technology Groupconnectchildcare.co.uk | 2012 | No | 23 | — |
| Albert Medical Devicesalbertmedicaldevices.com | 2011 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Cable-Sensecable-sense.com | 2012 | No | 21 | — |
| EcoLogicLivingecologicliving.co.uk | 2012 | No | 21 | — |
| iCare Technology | 2012 | No | 21 | — |
| Zutuxzutux.com | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| Sound2Light Productionssound2light.co.uk | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| Future Medical Technologies | 2011 | No | 18 | — |
| Castlerock Recruitment Groupcastlerockrg.com | 2012 | No | 18 | — |
| Redtree Peopleredtreepeople.com | 2012 | No | 17 | — |
| Autology Worldautology.org | 2011 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Nanoflexnanoflex.com | 2012 | No | 17 | — |
| Med ePadmed-epad.com | 2011 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Survival Media | 2012 | No | 15 | — |
| Glamorous Travelglamorous-travel.com | 2011 | No | 10 | — |
| Compliance Controlcompliance-control.com | 2012 | No | 9 | — |
| Channel Intellectchannelintellect.com | 2012 | No | 8 | — |
| Diagnostic Healthcarediagnostichealthcareltd.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Ultromexultromex.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| RealityMinerealitymine.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Ph.Creativeph-creative.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Absynth Biologicsabsynthbiologics.co.uk | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Loksys Solutionsloksys.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ChargePoint Technologythechargepoint.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Acoustic Sensing Technologyacousticsensing.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |