Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Northern Light Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (5 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.6%–97.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+40.6 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
+31.0 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+13.9 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 69.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+20.2 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 63.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.5 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 12.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerohive Networksaerohive.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Kaixin001kaixin001.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Chukong Technologieschukong-inc.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| TrustGotrustgo.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Beijing Taishi Xinguang Technology | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| Nurien Softwarenurien.com | 2008 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Zamplus Technologyzamplus.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |