Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Northstar Equity Investors vs Kairos
26th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (8 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 28.0%–72.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 41st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.0 pp
50.0% on 16 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
-2.6 pp
50.0% on 16 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.9 pp
50.0% on 16 deals vs 68.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.2 pp
50.0% on 16 deals vs 60.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 6.7% (1 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 1.2%–29.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.8 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palringopalringo.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Wireless Dynamics | 2006 | No | 75 | — |
| Illumix Softwareillumix.com | 2008 | No | 71 | — |
| Antix Labsantixlabs.com | 2009 | No | 66 | — |
| Quick TVquicktvpro.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| 4th aspect4thaspect.com | 2011 | Yes | 62 | — |
| ACAL Energyacalenergy.co.uk | 2008 | Yes | 61 | — |
| WorkCastworkcast.com | 2009 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Vertical Wind Energyvweltd.com | 2010 | No | 48 | — |
| ReInnervatereinnervate.com | 2010 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Eco Plasticsecoplasticsltd.com | 2008 | Yes | 43 | — |
| The Broadband Computer Companywelcometoalex.com | 2007 | No | 26 | — |
| EthicalSuperstore.Comethicalsuperstore.com | 2008 | No | 19 | — |
| Gurooguroo.co.uk | 2008 | No | 17 | — |
| Evinceevincetechnology.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| Spark Etail | 2006 | Yes | 5 | — |