Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Northstar Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 27.3% (3 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–56.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-18.4 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 45.7%
Vs median VC book
-29.9 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-46.2 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 73.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-50.3 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 77.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
43
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odimaxodimax.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Blooiebloo.ie | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Exuru!exuru.com | 2011 | No | 71 | — |
| Recite Mereciteme.com | 2011 | Yes | 57 | — |
| TryLifetrylife.tv | 2012 | No | 56 | — |
| Spontlyspontly.com | 2011 | No | 54 | — |
| Audacious | 2011 | No | 20 | — |
| amBXambx.com | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| Biomass CHPbiomasschp.co.uk | 2012 | No | 18 | — |
| Re Pet | 2011 | No | 12 | — |
| Deminosdeminos.co.uk | 2012 | No | 10 | — |
| ScreachTVscreach.tv | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |