Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Norwest Venture Partners - NVP vs Kairos
78th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 65.5% (36 of 55 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.3%–76.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 68th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+21.5 pp
65.5% on 55 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
+11.7 pp
66.0% on 53 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.0 pp
66.0% on 53 deals vs 69.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.4 pp
64.7% on 51 deals vs 69.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 53 of 55 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
53
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 29.2% (14 of 48). 95% Wilson interval 18.2%–43.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+15.3 pp
29.2% on 48 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
55 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picateerspicateers.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| RiseSmartrisesmart.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| SpectraLinearspectralinear.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Mozesmozes.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Avere Systemsaveresystems.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Zenvergezenverge.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| ClairMailclairmail.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| 41st Parameterthe41st.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Playdomplaydom.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Yatrayatra.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Blue Jeans Networkbluejeans.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Pertinopertino.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| 3Jam3jam.com | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| ConteXtreamcontextream.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Appnomic Systemsappnomic.com | 2009 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ravello Systemsravellosystems.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Basis Sciencemybasis.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Quikrquikr.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| OnVantage | 2006 | No | 88 | — |
| Apigeeapigee.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Kriyari | 2006 | No | 86 | — |
| iStorezistorez.com | 2008 | No | 86 | — |
| Motif Investingmotifinvesting.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Turnturn.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Sojernsojern.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| FireEyefireeye.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Simpirica Spinesimpirica.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| ClearDATAcleardata.com | 2012 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Bitglassbitglass.com | 2013 | Yes | 72 | — |
| LifeSize, a Division of Logitechlifesize.com | 2005 | Yes | 69 | — |
| InsightsOneinsightsone.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| Cast Iron Systemscastiron.com | 2003 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Mobile2Win Indiamobile2win.com | 2006 | No | 64 | — |
| Mbloxmblox.com | 2004 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Pepperfry.compepperfry.com | 2011 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Advanced Inquiry Systems Inc.advancedinquiry.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| Summit Microelectronicssummitmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Mercoramercora.com | 2005 | No | 48 | — |
| Reconnexreconnex.net | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Veraz Networksveraznetworks.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Adzillaadzilla.com | 2007 | No | 43 | — |
| 1010data1010data.com | 2010 | No | 42 | — |
| Lanyon Meetingslanyon.com | 2008 | No | 37 | — |
| Open Siliconopen-silicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Stream Processorsstreamprocessors.com | 2005 | Yes | 25 | — |
| TreatFeedtreatfeed.com | 2011 | No | 22 | — |
| TestQuesttestquest.com | 2005 | No | 19 | — |
| deCartadecarta.com | 2005 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Reliance Globalcomrelianceglobalcom.com | 2005 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Amcom Softwareamcomsoftware.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| Quirkyquirky.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| PCH Internationalpchintl.com | 2008 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Intersect ENTintersectent.com | 2010 | Yes | 9 | — |
| Morta Securitymortasecurity.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| CollabNetcollab.net | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| AmberPointamberpoint.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| PICS Auditingpicsauditing.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Snowmansnowman.in | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |