Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Notion Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 85.7% (6 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.7%–97.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 49.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+36.3 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 49.4%
Vs median VC book
+20.5 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 65.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.8 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 80.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+14.4 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 71.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tradeshifttradeshift.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Currency Cloudcurrencycloud.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Volo Commercevolocommerce.com | 2010 | Yes | 52 | — |
| NewVoiceMedianewvoicemedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Concentraconcentra.co.uk | 2009 | No | 13 | — |
| Rockaboxrockabox.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Vizolutionvizolution.co.uk | 2013 | Yes | — | — |