Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Novak Biddle Venture Partners vs Kairos
66th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 65.4% (17 of 26 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.2%–80.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 70th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.7 pp
65.4% on 26 deals vs 42.7%
Vs median VC book
+10.9 pp
64.0% on 25 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.5 pp
64.0% on 25 deals vs 67.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.7 pp
59.1% on 22 deals vs 69.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 25 of 26 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.8% (5 of 24). 95% Wilson interval 9.2%–40.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.8 pp
20.8% on 24 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
26 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SolidFiresolidfire.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| LifeShieldlifeshield.com | 2004 | Yes | 96 | Yes |
| ReverbNationreverbnation.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| eMinoreminorinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Shock Treatment Managementshocktreatmentmanagement.com | 2005 | No | 85 | — |
| Centrifuge Systemscentrifugesystems.com | 2008 | No | 84 | — |
| Fidelisfideliseducation.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Vubiquityvubiquity.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| GroupFliergroupflier.com | 2010 | No | 78 | — |
| Sennari | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Centicecentice.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| AddThisaddthis.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Previstarprevistar.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| Parchmentparchment.com | 2011 | Yes | 63 | — |
| WealthEnginewealthengine.com | 2010 | Yes | 62 | — |
| ObjectVideoobjectvideo.com | 2004 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Synchris | 2005 | No | 48 | — |
| Clear Standardsclearstandards.com | 2008 | No | 46 | — |
| Paratekparatek.com | 2004 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Triumfanttriumfant.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| Netcordianetcordia.com | 2005 | Yes | 39 | — |
| StackSafestacksafe.com | 2005 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Appianappian.com | 2008 | No | 36 | — |
| Spectrum K12 School Solutionsspectrumk12.com | 2007 | Yes | 23 | — |
| CounterStormcounterstorm.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| Approvaapprova.net | 2002 | Yes | — | — |