Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Novartis Venture Fund vs Kairos
39th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 54.1% (20 of 37 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.4%–69.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 46th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.5 pp
54.1% on 37 deals vs 44.5%
Vs median VC book
+0.4 pp
55.6% on 36 deals vs 55.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.5 pp
55.6% on 36 deals vs 71.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.4 pp
54.3% on 35 deals vs 64.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 36 of 37 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
36
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.7% (6 of 29). 95% Wilson interval 9.8%–38.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.7 pp
20.7% on 29 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
37 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akebia Therapeuticsakebia.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| ImaginAbimaginab.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Anchor Therapeuticsanchortx.com | 2010 | No | 90 | — |
| GlycoMimeticsglycomimetics.com | 2003 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Catalyst Biosciencescatalystbiosciences.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Intradigm Corporationintradigm.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Covalys Biosciences | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Advanced Animal Diagnosticsadvancedanimaldiagnostics.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Effector Therapeuticseffector.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Bicycle Therapeuticsbicycletherapeutics.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Atlas Geneticsatlasgenetics.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Tephatepha.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Oxagenoxagen.co.uk | 2009 | No | 66 | — |
| Aileron Therapeuticsaileronrx.com | 2006 | Yes | 65 | — |
| EraGen Bioscienceseragen.com | 2006 | No | 62 | — |
| Foldrx Pharmaceuticalsfoldrx.com | 2010 | No | 60 | — |
| BioRelixbiorelix.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Merusmerus.nl | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| Nabriva Therapeuticsnabriva.com | 2010 | No | 51 | — |
| Viron Therapeuticsvironinc.com | 2006 | No | 50 | — |
| Immune Targeting Systemsits-innovation.com | 2007 | Yes | 49 | — |
| ProCertus BioPharmprocertus.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Covagencovagen.com | 2009 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Biofisicabiofisica.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Cellerixcellerix.com | 2007 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Diagnoplexdiagnoplex.com | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| GenSight Biologicsgensight-biologics.com | 2013 | Yes | 38 | — |
| MyoPowers Medical Technologiesmyopowers.com | 2011 | No | 34 | — |
| Opsonaopsona.com | 2009 | No | 34 | — |
| PharmAbcinepharmabcine.com | 2009 | No | 33 | — |
| NanoPowersnanopowers.ch | 2010 | No | 30 | — |
| LigoCyte Pharmaceuticalsligocyte.com | 2008 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Evolvaevolva.com | 2009 | No | 16 | — |
| ESBATechesbatech.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| Neovacsneovacs.fr | 2007 | No | 9 | — |
| Proteostasis Therapeuticsproteostasis.com | 2008 | No | 7 | — |
| NovImmunenovimmune.com | 2000 | No | — | — |