Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Novel TMT Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 49.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.3 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 49.8%
Vs median VC book
-12.1 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 69.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-28.6 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 85.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.8 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 62.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlaySpanplayspan.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| DailyLookdailylook.com | 2013 | No | 71 | — |
| ThirdLovethirdlove.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Mail.com Media Corporationcorp.mail.com | 2008 | No | 43 | — |
| Reloaded Games, Inc.reloadedinc.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Darby Smartdarbysmart.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| The Business of Fashionbusinessoffashion.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| L’ArcoBalenolarcobaleno.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |