Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures vs Kairos
91st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 85.0% (17 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.0%–94.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 94th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+40.3 pp
85.0% on 20 deals vs 44.7%
Vs median VC book
+28.1 pp
85.0% on 20 deals vs 56.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+12.8 pp
85.0% on 20 deals vs 72.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+19.0 pp
85.0% on 20 deals vs 66.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.1 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SweetLabssweetlabs.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Foursquarefoursquare.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Strobestrobecorp.com | 2010 | No | 95 | — |
| 3D Robotics3drobotics.com | 2012 | Yes | 95 | — |
| OpenXopenx.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Sherpaasherpaa.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| TripIttripit.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| SeeMesee.me | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Fidelisfideliseducation.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Path Intelligencepathintelligence.com | 2007 | No | 83 | — |
| Wesabewesabe.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| AMEEamee.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Chumbychumby.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| GameLayersgamelayers.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| SkyCache | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Covercover.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Acquiaacquia.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| PeerJpeerj.com | 2012 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Bloom Studiobloom.io | 2011 | No | 55 | — |
| Maker Mediamakermedia.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| theBench | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |