Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Oak Investment Partners vs Kairos
53rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.8% (29 of 52 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.3%–68.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 51st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.9 pp
55.8% on 52 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+2.7 pp
55.8% on 52 deals vs 53.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.8 pp
55.8% on 52 deals vs 67.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.8 pp
54.3% on 46 deals vs 68.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
51
Mean model percentile
48
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 27.3% (12 of 44). 95% Wilson interval 16.3%–41.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.9 pp
27.3% on 44 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
52 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ontelaontela.com | 2006 | No | 96 | — |
| Zumobizumobi.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Wavestreamwavestreamwireless.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| RebelMouserebelmouse.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Aurora Biofuelsaurorainc.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| GreenVoltsgreenvolts.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| SNAPin Softwaresnapin.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Qpixel Technology | 2006 | No | 81 | — |
| Mojixmojix.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Thrillist Media Groupthrillist.com | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| Talismatalisma.com | 2003 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Tengiontengion.com | 2005 | Yes | 74 | — |
| LumaSense Technologieslumasenseinc.com | 2007 | No | 72 | — |
| Vayusa | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| BONDS.COMbonds.com | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| B5M.COMb5m.com | 2012 | Yes | 65 | — |
| FRSfrs.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| eSolaresolar.com | 2008 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Trapeze Networkstrapezenetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Trumba Corporationtrumba.com | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| RazorGatorrazorgator.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Stretchstretchinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Centric Softwarecentricsoftware.com | 2004 | No | 56 | — |
| Sundrop Fuelssundropfuels.com | 2008 | No | 55 | — |
| Artimiartimi.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Airspan Networksairspan.com | 2009 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Level 5 Networkslevel5networks.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Gazillion Entertainmentgazillion.com | 2010 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Movaz Networks | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| SmartDrive Systemssmartdrive.net | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Reunion.comreunion.com | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| CoVi Technologies | 2005 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Demand Mediademandmedia.com | 2006 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Potbelly Sandwich Workspotbellysandwichworks.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| NextG Networksnextgnetworks.net | 2008 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Modiv Mediamodivmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Linux Networxlinuxnetworx.com | 2004 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Collaberacollabera.com | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| White Rock Networkswhiterock.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| Vistovisto.com | 2003 | Yes | 20 | — |
| 1Life Healthcare1life.com | 2013 | Yes | 19 | — |
| SHOP.COMshop.com | 2005 | No | 16 | — |
| Beijing Lingtu Softwarelingtu.com.cn | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| Veebeamveebeam.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| Business Engine | 2005 | No | 14 | — |
| Protean Electricproteanelectric.com | 2012 | No | 13 | — |
| Solarflare Communicationssolarflare.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| CDNetworkscdnetworks.com | 2007 | No | 10 | — |
| Zayozayo.com | 2007 | Yes | 10 | — |
| NeoPhotonicsneophotonics.com | 2004 | Yes | 5 | — |
| ReliOnrelion-inc.com | 2004 | No | 3 | — |
| Precision for Medicineprecisionformedicine.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| NowThis Newsnowthisnews.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |