Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
OCA Ventures vs Kairos
29th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.9% (9 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.0%–73.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 42nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.0 pp
52.9% on 17 deals vs 45.0%
Vs median VC book
-5.2 pp
52.9% on 17 deals vs 58.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.7 pp
52.9% on 17 deals vs 73.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.8 pp
52.9% on 17 deals vs 68.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.4 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CohesiveFTcohesiveft.com | 2007 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Campus Explorercampusexplorer.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Base CRMgetbase.com | 2011 | Yes | 94 | — |
| TradeKingtradeking.com | 2006 | No | 88 | — |
| Brill Street + Companybrillstreet.com | 2007 | No | 84 | — |
| Pangea Universal Holdingsgopangea.com | 2013 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Alert Logicalertlogic.com | 2005 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Cartavicartavi.com | 2012 | No | 77 | — |
| BrightNestbrightnest.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Fitocracyfitocracy.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Univa UDunivaud.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Future Simplefuturesimple.com | 2011 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Whittlwhittl.com | 2013 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Cleversafecleversafe.com | 2007 | Yes | 48 | — |
| SumRidge Partnerssumridge.com | 2010 | No | 29 | — |
| National Billing Partnersmybillingpartner.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Retention Education | 2008 | No | 15 | — |
| Whittlewhittleinc.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |