Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Octopus Ventures vs Kairos
3rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.3% (13 of 46 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 17.3%–42.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 13th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-16.8 pp
28.3% on 46 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
-27.7 pp
28.3% on 46 deals vs 55.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-43.1 pp
28.3% on 46 deals vs 71.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-38.8 pp
28.3% on 46 deals vs 67.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
46
Mean model percentile
47
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.8% (5 of 39). 95% Wilson interval 5.6%–26.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.8 pp
12.8% on 39 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
46 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SwiftKeyswiftkey.com | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Phasor Solutionsphasorsolutions.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| YPlanyplanapp.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Grazegraze.com | 2009 | No | 87 | — |
| Surrey NanoSystemssurreynanosystems.com | 2009 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Evievi.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Calastonecalastone.com | 2008 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Getlenses.co.ukvisiondirect.co.uk | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Secret Escapessecretescapes.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Amplienceamplience.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| iProfile Ltdiprofile.org | 2009 | No | 69 | — |
| eTherapeuticsetherapeutics.co.uk | 2009 | No | 69 | — |
| CSL DualComcsldual.com | 2009 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Semafonesemafone.com | 2010 | No | 65 | — |
| Metrasensmetrasens.com | 2010 | No | 63 | — |
| The Kendal Groupthekendalgroup.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| Coal Grill & Barcoalgrillandbar.co.uk | 2009 | No | 51 | — |
| Bowman Powerbowmanpower.com | 2012 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Artesian Solutionsartesiansolutions.com | 2012 | No | 49 | — |
| KeTechketech.com | 2009 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Tristartristarworldwide.com | 2008 | No | 43 | — |
| Frankis Solutions Limitedfrankissolutions.com | 2010 | No | 42 | — |
| LifeBooklifebookuk.com | 2012 | No | 42 | — |
| Phase Visionphasevision.com | 2009 | Yes | 41 | — |
| The Good Mortgage Companymoneyworkout.co.uk | 2010 | No | 41 | — |
| BDAbdacreative.com | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| Gymboxgymbox.co.uk | 2010 | No | 40 | — |
| Reading Roomreadingroom.com | 2005 | No | 39 | — |
| Applied Superconductorappliedsuperconductor.com | 2011 | No | 39 | — |
| Clifford Thamesclifford-thames.com | 2010 | No | 36 | — |
| GB Environmentalgb-environmental.com | 2008 | No | 35 | — |
| Diverse Energydiverse-energy.com | 2010 | No | 35 | — |
| AQSsoilxchange.co.uk | 2010 | No | 33 | — |
| Vega-Chivega-chi.com | 2011 | No | 29 | — |
| Bluebell Telecombluebelltelecom.com | 2010 | No | 25 | — |
| The History Pressthehistorypress.co.uk | 2010 | No | 24 | — |
| Sweet Credsweetcred.com | 2007 | No | 21 | — |
| VYRE Limitedvyre.com | 2010 | No | 17 | — |
| Carebasecarebase.net | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| Intamac Systemsintamac.com | 2006 | No | 16 | — |
| The Key Revolutionthekeyrevolution.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| T4 Mediat4media.co.uk | 2007 | No | 13 | — |
| Monkey Biznessmonkey-bizness.co.uk | 2009 | No | 9 | — |
| Executive Channelexecutivechannel.eu | 2010 | No | 6 | — |
| Perfect Pizzaperfectpizza.co.uk | 2006 | No | 6 | — |
| AVM Impactavmimpact.com | 2006 | No | 3 | — |
| Affectvaffectv.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Rangespanrangespan.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Decoholicdecoholic.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |