Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ONSET Ventures vs Kairos
51st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (15 of 25 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.7%–76.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 58th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.1 pp
60.0% on 25 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
+10.8 pp
63.6% on 22 deals vs 52.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.6 pp
63.6% on 22 deals vs 68.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.2 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 64.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 22 of 25 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
22
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (6 of 24). 95% Wilson interval 12.0%–44.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.2 pp
25.0% on 24 deals vs 13.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
25 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Placecastplacecast.net | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| obopayobopay.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Buysightbuysight.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| BAROnovabaronova.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Sadra Medicalsadramedical.com | 2004 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Invariuminvarium.com | 2006 | No | 91 | — |
| Blue Vector Systemsbluevectorsystems.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| Syndera Corporationsyndera.com | 2005 | No | 88 | — |
| Brilliant Telecommunicationsbrillianttelecom.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Adaptive Planningadaptiveplanning.com | 2005 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Sentillasentilla.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Relievant Medsystemsrelievant.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Nok Nok Labsnoknok.com | 2013 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Aragon Surgicalaragonsurgical.com | 2008 | No | 74 | — |
| Truvisotruviso.com | 2009 | No | 73 | — |
| VM Discoveryvmdiscovery.com | 2006 | No | 72 | — |
| Apieronapieron.com | 2003 | Yes | 67 | — |
| SS8 Networksss8.com | 2006 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Netseernetseer.com | 2009 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Panceterapancetera.com | 2009 | No | 43 | — |
| Packetmotionpacketmotion.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| NovaSysnovasyshealth.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |
| Arcot Systemsarcot.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| VisionCare Ophthalmic Technologiesvisioncareinc.net | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Nextancenextance.com | 2002 | No | — | — |