Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Opus Capital vs Kairos
30th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.6% (10 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.7%–72.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 44th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.6 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
-1.9 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 54.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.8 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 70.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.7 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 63.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
19
Mean model percentile
85
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.3% (5 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 14.2%–55.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+19.2 pp
31.3% on 16 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sisensesisense.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| FreeMoneefreemonee.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Pudding Mediapuddingmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Spockspock.com | 2006 | No | 95 | — |
| Transpondtranspond.com | 2009 | No | 95 | — |
| AdMobiusadmobius.com | 2012 | No | 94 | — |
| Jivoxjivox.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Space-Time Insightspacetimeinsight.com | 2009 | No | 91 | — |
| AlertEnterprisealertenterprise.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Sequentsequent.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Eye-Fieye.fi | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Touchstone Semiconductortouchstonesemi.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| TuneCoretunecore.com | 2008 | No | 82 | — |
| Dome9 Securitydome9.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Hingi | 2007 | No | 80 | — |
| SolarEdgesolaredge.us | 2009 | Yes | 79 | — |
| AppMeshappme.sh | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Corefinocorefino.com | 2008 | No | 60 | — |
| C-narioc-nario.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |