Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Origin Ventures vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (5 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.6%–97.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.1%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+35.2 pp

83.3% on 6 deals vs 48.1%

Vs median VC book

+19.0 pp

83.3% on 6 deals vs 64.3%

Vs top-quartile VC

+2.9 pp

83.3% on 6 deals vs 80.4%

Vs Y Combinator

+15.7 pp

83.3% on 6 deals vs 67.6%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

6 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
SailPoint Technologiessailpoint.com	2006	Yes	96	—
Shoutletshoutlet.com	2010	Yes	95	—
Pangea Universal Holdingsgopangea.com	2013	Yes	78	—
GrubHubgrubhub.com	2007	Yes	64	—
Swayswayonline.com	2010	No	57	—
Whittlwhittl.com	2013	Yes	56	—
Whittlewhittleinc.com	2013	Unobserved	—	—