Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Originate Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.3 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 46.7%
Vs median VC book
-6.3 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 56.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.0 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 72.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-8.5 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 58.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.0 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 10.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ThermalTherapeuticSystemsthermaltherapeutics.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| RightsFlowrightsflow.com | 2009 | No | 91 | — |
| CareKinesiscarekinesis.com | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| South49 Solutionssouth49.com | 2009 | No | 38 | — |
| ProtonMediaprotonmedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Nayateknayatek.com | 2008 | No | 35 | — |