Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Outlook Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.5% (5 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.6%–86.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+20.9 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 41.6%
Vs median VC book
+11.7 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 50.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.2 pp
62.5% on 8 deals vs 63.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.1 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 76.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
82
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.9 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 15.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xactly Corpxactlycorp.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Bridgestreambridgestream.com | 2004 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| Vantosvantos.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| ClairMailclairmail.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Loyalty Labloyaltylab.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Lasso Logic | 2005 | No | 80 | — |
| Echopass Corporationgenesys.com | 2003 | No | 55 | — |
| Reconnexreconnex.net | 2006 | No | 46 | — |