Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
OVP Venture Partners vs Kairos
96th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (20 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.1%–93.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 94th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+40.5 pp
83.3% on 24 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
+29.9 pp
82.6% on 23 deals vs 52.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+15.3 pp
82.6% on 23 deals vs 67.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+17.9 pp
82.6% on 23 deals vs 64.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 23 of 24 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 13.0% (3 of 23). 95% Wilson interval 4.5%–32.1%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.8 pp
13.0% on 23 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete Genomicscompletegenomics.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Allozyneallozyne.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Napera Networksnapera.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Vantosvantos.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Groove Biopharmagroovebiopharma.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| GenoLogicsgenologics.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Collaborative Software Initiativecsinitiative.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Verdezyneverdezyne.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Avenda Systemsavendasys.com | 2008 | No | 82 | — |
| CarbonFlowcarbonflow.com | 2008 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Tigo Energytigoenergy.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| PrecisionDemandprecisiondemand.com | 2008 | Yes | 69 | — |
| AdmitOne Securityadmitonesecurity.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Fate Therapeuticsfatetherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| GainSpangainspan.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Arzedaarzeda.com | 2009 | No | 59 | — |
| Advanced Inquiry Systems Inc.advancedinquiry.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| VLST Corporationvlstcorp.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| EnerG2energ2.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Adapxadapx.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Talysttalyst.com | 2006 | Yes | 44 | — |
| NanoString Technologiesnanostring.com | 2005 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Virtugo Softwareuxcomm.com | 2006 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Action Engineactionengine.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |