Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Oxford Bioscience Partners vs Kairos
90th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (16 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 58.4%–91.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 93rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+39.5 pp
80.0% on 20 deals vs 40.5%
Vs median VC book
+29.9 pp
80.0% on 20 deals vs 50.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+14.6 pp
80.0% on 20 deals vs 65.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+21.5 pp
80.0% on 15 deals vs 58.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.0% (3 of 20). 95% Wilson interval 5.2%–36.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.9 pp
15.0% on 20 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tragaratragarapharma.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Ensemble Discoveryensemblediscovery.com | 2004 | No | 92 | — |
| BrainCellsbraincellsinc.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Dicerna Pharmaceuticalsdicerna.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| VaxInnatevaxinnate.com | 2004 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Coherex Medicalcoherex.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Solstice Neurosciencessolsticeneuro.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Cambrios Technologiescambrios.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| CircuLitecirculite.net | 2007 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Melintamelinta.com | 2009 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Radius Healthradiuspharm.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |
| FlowMedica | 2004 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Seahorse Bioscienceseahorsebio.com | 2009 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Claros Diagnosticsclarosdx.com | 2007 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Mitralignmitralign.com | 2007 | No | 31 | — |
| Affinium Pharmaceuticalsafnm.com | 2007 | No | 29 | — |
| Elixir Pharmaceuticalselixirpharm.com | 2006 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Laboratory Partners | 2008 | Yes | 16 | — |
| SuperDimensionsuperdimension.com | 2003 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Pathway Medical Technologiespathwaymedical.com | 2009 | Yes | 12 | — |