Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Oxford Capital Partners vs Kairos
84th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.9% (23 of 32 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 54.6%–84.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 82nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.6 pp
71.9% on 32 deals vs 42.2%
Vs median VC book
+20.0 pp
71.9% on 32 deals vs 51.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.1 pp
71.9% on 32 deals vs 66.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+4.3 pp
73.1% on 26 deals vs 68.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
32
Mean model percentile
44
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 7.1% (2 of 28). 95% Wilson interval 2.0%–22.6%.
Vs exit base rate
-7.0 pp
7.1% on 28 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
32 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariesoarieso.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Green Biologicsgreenbiologics.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| SCLscl.cc | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| Microbial Solutionsmicrobialsolutions.co.uk | 2008 | No | 83 | — |
| Oxitecoxitec.com | 2005 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Helvetahelveta.com | 2005 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Exosectexosect.com | 2008 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Scancellscancell.co.uk | 2004 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Sirigensirigen.com | 2008 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Orthomimetics | 2006 | No | 59 | — |
| Protek-dor | 2004 | No | 50 | — |
| Sphere Medical Holdingspheremedical.com | 2006 | Yes | 49 | — |
| g-Nostics | 2004 | Yes | 45 | — |
| InfoBasis | 2004 | Yes | 41 | — |
| Concurrent Thinkingconcurrent-thinking.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| iJentoijento.com | 2010 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Teepix | 2007 | No | 38 | — |
| Mirriadmirriad.com | 2010 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Cogniacognia.com | 2011 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Ad.IQadiqglobal.com | 2006 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Rostimarostima.com | 2004 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Glide Pharmaglidepharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 27 | — |
| PowerOasispoweroasis.com | 2011 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Veryan Medicalveryanmed.com | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Hardide Coatingshardide.com | 2004 | No | 22 | — |
| Oxonicaoxonica.com | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Oxford BioTherapeuticsoxbt.co.uk | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Application Developments plcaltech-uk.com | 2006 | No | 19 | — |
| Inetec | 2006 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Streamline Computing | 2006 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Gazoobgazoob.com | 2012 | No | 16 | — |
| Site Intelligencesite-intelligence.com | 2010 | Yes | 6 | — |