Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Paladin Capital Group vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (4 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 13.8%–60.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-9.5 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 42.9%
Vs median VC book
-19.8 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 53.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-33.6 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-34.1 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 67.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
36
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 27.3% (3 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–56.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.0 pp
27.3% on 11 deals vs 14.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PhishMephishme.com | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Previstarprevistar.com | 2005 | No | 71 | — |
| Neohapsisneohapsis.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Nexidianexidia.com | 2006 | No | 49 | — |
| Adapxadapx.com | 2007 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Iptiviaiptivia.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Akanaakana.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| Crossbow Technologiesxbow.com | 2005 | No | 19 | — |
| CloudShield Technologiescloudshield.com | 2005 | Yes | 19 | — |
| CounterStormcounterstorm.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| Vital Renewable Energy Companyvrec.com.br | 2008 | No | 11 | — |
| Initiate Systemsinitiatesystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 6 | — |