Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Palomar Ventures vs Kairos
75th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (14 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.1%–85.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 39.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 83rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+30.4 pp
70.0% on 20 deals vs 39.6%
Vs median VC book
+20.9 pp
70.0% on 20 deals vs 49.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+6.9 pp
70.0% on 20 deals vs 63.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-6.7 pp
64.3% on 14 deals vs 71.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.0% (6 of 20). 95% Wilson interval 14.5%–51.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+15.6 pp
30.0% on 20 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storspeeditknowledgeexchange.techtarget.com | 2007 | No | 99 | Yes |
| MyBuysmybuys.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Ace Metrixacemetrix.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Biscottibiscotti.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Dedicated Devices | 2004 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Woven Systemswovensystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Incuity Softwareincuity.com | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| SkyeTekskyetek.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Gamma Enterprise Technologies | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| Voxifyvoxify.com | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| Silver Creek Systemssilvercreeksystems.com | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| Strix Systemsstrixsystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Network Physics | 2003 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Zannelzannel.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| WiQuest Communicationswiquest.com | 2004 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Ravenflowravenflow.com | 2005 | Yes | 36 | — |
| ExteNet Systemsextenetsystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Fulcrum Microsystemsfulcrummicro.com | 2005 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Lombardi Softwarelombardi.com | 2003 | No | 22 | — |
| KnowNowventurebeat.com | 2003 | Yes | 21 | — |