Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Pangaea Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.8 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 47.7%
Vs median VC book
+8.5 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 63.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-6.7 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 78.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.7 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 68.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boulder Ionicsboulderionics.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Cnano Technologycnanotechnology.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Semprus BioSciencessemprusbio.com | 2008 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Tivra | 2012 | No | 63 | — |
| SWITCH Materialsswitchmaterials.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| NewLeaf Symbioticsnewleafsym.com | 2013 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Masterson Industriesmastersonind.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |