Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Pappas Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (6 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.3%–83.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+17.7 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 42.3%
Vs median VC book
+6.6 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 53.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.2 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-0.8 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 60.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.3 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD Therapeuticsleadtherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Milestone Pharmaceuticalsmilestonepharma.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| Syndax Pharmaceuticalssyndax.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Cequent Pharmaceuticalscequentpharma.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| FlowCardiaflowcardia.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| TyRx Pharmatyrx.com | 2010 | No | 55 | — |
| Biosyntechbiosyntech.com | 2009 | No | 54 | — |
| CoLucid Pharmaceuticalscolucid.com | 2008 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Gentisgentisinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Thrasosthrasos.com | 2012 | Yes | 29 | — |
| Research Triangle Park (RTP)rtp.org | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |