Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Partech Ventures vs Kairos
56th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 59.5% (22 of 37 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.5%–73.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 57th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.6 pp
59.5% on 37 deals vs 43.8%
Vs median VC book
+3.8 pp
58.3% on 36 deals vs 54.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-10.9 pp
58.3% on 36 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.7 pp
54.5% on 33 deals vs 69.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 36 of 37 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
35
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (6 of 33). 95% Wilson interval 8.6%–34.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.2 pp
18.2% on 33 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
37 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akimbi Systemsakimbi.com | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Scoop.itscoop.it | 2009 | No | 95 | — |
| GOOMgoom.fr | 2009 | No | 95 | — |
| mSnapmsnap.com | 2006 | No | 89 | — |
| SmartGrainssmartgrains.com | 2010 | No | 89 | — |
| Miso Mediamisomedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| ARIO Data Networksariodata.com | 2004 | Yes | 86 | — |
| TVtriptvtrip.com | 2007 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Atlantis Computingatlantiscomputing.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Quantivoquantivo.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Dailymotiondailymotion.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Qapaqapa.fr | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| LED Enginledengin.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| Replay Solutionsreplaysolutions.com | 2006 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Goojetgoojet.com | 2007 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Smeetsmeet.com | 2006 | Yes | 62 | — |
| PeerPongpeerpong.com | 2010 | No | 61 | — |
| Realeyes 3Drealeyes3d.com | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| Jaspersoftjaspersoft.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Acco Brandsaccobrands.com | 2007 | No | 59 | — |
| NovaSparkshpcplatform.com | 2010 | No | 53 | — |
| Bocadabocada.com | 2005 | Yes | 48 | — |
| ClearAppclearapp.com | 2006 | Yes | 48 | — |
| DecisionViewdecisionviewsoftware.com | 2007 | Yes | 46 | — |
| IDbyME | 2010 | Yes | 45 | — |
| avandeoavandeo.de | 2012 | No | 45 | — |
| EXFOexfo.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| Ventealaproprieteventealapropriete.com | 2010 | No | 43 | — |
| Total Immersiont-immersion.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Resolute Networksresolutenetworks.com | 2005 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Disceradiscera.com | 2004 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Vue Technologyvuetechnology.com | 2006 | No | 26 | — |
| TouchCommercetouchcommerce.com | 2006 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Microfabricamicrofabrica.com | 2004 | Yes | 21 | — |
| DiBcomdibcom.net | 2005 | Yes | 14 | — |
| Dymantdymant.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Atlantisatlantiss.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PriceMatchpricematch.travel | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Ingrian Networksingrian.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| AlephDalephd.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Sensopiasensopia.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |